A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
