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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd